Leading under Uncertainty

5 ECTS / Semestral / Português

Objectives and method

Understand and recognize the categorical difference between 'risk' and 'uncertainty' and the main implications of such difference.
Identify and understand what is a 'predictive logic' and a 'non-predictive logic' and how we can use each to manage risk and deal with uncertainty.
Learning to 'see' the world with different perspectives and at different levels.
Experience and learning how to use ‘method’ to understand what is happening around us.
Recognize, theoretically and practically, the differences between our 'physical world' and our 'social world'.
Know and apply the fundamentals of 'systems theory' and 'complexity theory'.
Identify the origins and effects of uncertainty in the near-past world and in the near-future world, whether from the emergence of new technologies and new markets, or from the interaction of current phenomena such as globalization and the pandemic, learning to lead in contexts of uncertainty.

Combination of theoretical classes (to cover the content described in section 5 above) with theoretical-practical classes (for case-study analysis and discussion) and with intense field work (carried out in groups of four or five students). The field work aims at identifying and studying practical cases of dealing with uncertainty by individuals and families or by companies and other entities, public or private, large or small, recent or old – and to produce an analysis and synthesis of knowledge from such practical cases.



  • Uncertainty and Risk
  • ‘Reductionism’ and ‘Systemism’ – and the inability to deal with uncertainty
  • Knowledge: Nature and Method (basics)
  • Systems Theory and Complexity Theory (basics)
  • The unpredictability and irreversibility of 'emergence'
  • Risk and predictive logic. Uncertainty and non-predictive logic


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